We put up a weather balloon in the small town of Adrian, TX. The balloon showed CAPE of 3082 and 0-3 SRH of 297 with zero CIN. This was quite favorable for supercell development.
Right about the time we finished our launch a tower went up to our north and quickly developed super-cellular features. Based on our sounding this pattern should have continued further south and we would be in a prime spot to intercept the next storm to form. problem: there was no other storm.
Everything we knew said it was a good idea to stay. Our balloon showed a favorable environment and chasing country was unfavorable to the north due to the lack of roads and some hills. If a storm would have developed further south we would have had a better look at it. The only thing we did not forsee was the cap strengthening over our area.
We had to go home with our tail between our legs while vortex 2 followed the cyclic supercell to our north. At least we are in our hotel early tonight to get good sleep for the favorable day tomorrow.
You win some and you lose some. Today we lost. But that is the beauty of the atmosphere. There are still things we cannot forecast.
Hopefully tomorrow we will win!
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